Media Curmudgeon: Friday, December 12, 2003.

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December 12, 2003

Friday, December 12, 2003.

Friday, December 12, 2003. Bluffing
I heard Brian Cashman, the Yankees general manager, do an interview on the radio yesterday about failing to sign Andy Pettite to a new contract. When Cashman was asked whether he or George Steinbrener was negotiating with Gary Sheffield, Cashman said that Steinbrenner was. When he was asked who was negotiating with Vladimir Guerrero, Cashman said he was.

So, yesterday's blog was wrong about Steinbrenner negotiating with Guerrero. However, if George cannot negotiate and close a deal with Sheffield, then the pressure will be on Cashman to make a deal with Guerrero.

I'm writing this correction because I want to try to maintain my credibility and create a perception that my blogs are accurate--primarily so I can get away with some exaggerations from time to time. However, I won't exaggerate in a regular pattern, like every fourth blog, then readers (who are, of course, very smart) would figure out the pattern. I intend to use a mixed exaggeration strategy--to exaggerate on a random basis so you'll never know when I'm doing it.

This strategy is based on game theory, as first articulated by John von Neumann and later refined by John Nash (of "A Beautiful Mind" fame), and probably best articulated in David Sklansky's classic, brilliant book, Hold 'Em Poker. The question Sklansky answers about when to bluff in poker (in my case, exaggerating or being carelessly inaccurate with facts) is to bluff on a random basis based on the pot odds. In Chapter 12, "Negotiating and Closing," of Media Selling I discuss using a mixed strategy when bluffing in negotiating.

The chapter says that if you never bluff when you negotiate, the other side will know that and take advantage of you. On the other hand, if you bluff too often or in a recognizable pattern, the other side will recognize the pattern and take advantage of you. The only way to gain a competitive advantage is to bluff on a random basis.

And I'm not bluffing when I recommend buying and reading Media Selling. If you'll buy a copy and send it to me, I'll autograph it for you. Send me an e-mail at charleshwarner@mail.com and I'll send you my address.

Posted by Charles Warner at December 12, 2003 10:46 AM

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Media Curmudgeon

December 12, 2003

Friday, December 12, 2003.

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