Media Curmudgeon: Thursday, December 11, 2003. I'm

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December 11, 2003

Thursday, December 11, 2003. I'm

Thursday, December 11, 2003. I'm Worried About Radio
Robert Coen, the usually bullish predictor of American and Global advertising spending, was bullish again this week when he announced at the 31st annual UBS Media Week Conference that the ad recession was over and that ad spending would grow 6.9 percent next year in the US. That was very good news for most media. Coen's category of national television (which includes networks, local stations, national and local cable, and TV syndication) will rise by 11 percent, he predicts, national radio will rise by less than half that, 7 percent, and national magazines will go up 5 percent.

On the same page of the continuation of the front-page story in the "Business Day" section of The Times that reported on Coen annual predictions, a small item under "Miscellany" indicated that in October of this year radio revenue had declined by 1 percent over last year. This item indicates to me that Coen's estimates for a 7 percent growth for national radio next year might be optimistic, and I'm worried. This worry is increased by the fact that the 7 percent estimate is based, in part, on the boost that radio will get from political spending in a presidential election year.

As an ex-radio guy who still has a love-hate relationship with the sound medium, I'm worried that if ad revenue in commercial radio doesn't grow as expected, the quality of commercial radio programming will decline--and it doesn't have far to go to reach the the proverbial depths of whale droppings. What happens when advertising revenue declines is that radio station owners put more profit pressure on station managers and programmers. With increased profit pressure, invariably comes increased commercial loads and increased pandering to the lowest common denominator--bad taste and bad music. Radio personalities get nastier, more conservative, and dirtier and the music does the same. Also, in terms of music, as ad revenue declines, stations start asking so-called independent record promoters to pay stations to play records. This sleazy practice, in turn, means that the records played on a station are not the result of popularity but of who pays. Less familiar and less popular music leads to lower ratings as people listen more and more to their iPods (now Apple's biggest selling product) and their own mix on CDs of downloaded songs.

I'm also worried about the sameness of radio stations across the country, the result of conglomeration and radio formats being dictated from corporate headquarters. Radio is a great medium; it is a warm, friendly musical traveling companion and information source. But commercial radio is in trouble. The dullness and sameness of music formats, the hysterical ranting of conservative idiots, and all-news stations totally devoid of substance and analysis are driving listeners to NPR stations, the Internet for news and music, and to satellite radio (XM and Sirius) where they can get multiple formats and fewer, and even no, commercials.

On the advertising front, radio stations are being hammered by local cable, which has now has much more inventory to sell at prices that are often half (on a cost-per-thousand or cost-per-point basis) of local radio. What advertiser wouldn't want pictures for less money? So I'm worried about radio's economic future.

Isn't this all so Darwinian--the survival of the fittest, of those species that can best adapt to the changing ecology and environment. I'm worried that radio isn't innovating, isn't adapting fast enough. And I say this sadly as I switch from Radio@AOL (Big Band and Swing) to Jazz 91 (Bay Area) that I have in my Favorites on my browser.

Posted by Charles Warner at December 11, 2003 12:10 AM

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December 11, 2003

Thursday, December 11, 2003. I'm

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