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November 22, 2006
Google Stock Hits $500
On Tuesday, November 21, Google's stock hit its top price for the year--$500. And I could have bought it when it came out at $85. I should have know better and not invested in the website DailyComedy.com, which I am closing down November 31.
I could afford to invest in a website because I made a little money on AOL stock when I was there from 1998 to 2002. I stayed a year too long, well, really six months too long. I should have known AOL and Time Warner was screwed when Bob Pittman left in July 2001, and left then.
Hindsight is always 20-20. What made me think that I could open a website? What made me think that AOL and Time Warner would be OK after Bob leftv(in the sort-term that is)? What makes Google think it can get into the TV and radio sales business? We'll only know in hindsight.
It seems stupid to bet against Google now that the stock price has shot up to the $500-a-share level, and just about every move it has made has spun gold. I'm a legacy of stupid moves. I predicted about a year ago that Google would fail in the TV and radio sales business, and I still feel that way.
At one time I also thought AOL was dead and would never some back and thought Yahoo! was more innovative than Google. Now, Google is winning big, Yahoo! is in a peanut butter tail spin (some even think Semel should go), and AOL is roping 'em in like never before with its new TMZ (6.8 million uniqe visitors last month, according to the NY Times). Who would have thought it?
It just goes to show that no one can predict the future. So why to we try? Because no one remembers when we're wrong and you can gloat about it if you're right. So, no one will remember that I predict that Google will ultimately fail in selling TV time and, probably, bigmarket radio time as well. It will be sucessful and make a lot of money selling newspaper ads with its superior technology. Yahoo! will also try to sell newspaper ads, but it doesn't have the clout or the technology to do it well and Google does--so Google will win this battle.
What makes me think that Google can sell everything but TV and, probably, big-market radio when I have been so consistently wrong. I dunno, just lucky I guess.
Posted by Charles Warner at November 22, 2006 09:48 PM
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